Project Blue Tucson Data Center Impact Dashboard 2025
Economic impact calculator based on Net Local Impact methodology
Historical scenario model: The assumptions and source data in this model were last substantively updated in July 2025 and describe the proposal then before the City of Tucson, not the current Project Blue development. All figures and labels (including projected ratepayer, water, tax, fiscal, and economic effects) are illustrative outputs based on user-selected assumptions, not findings or predictions about actual costs, rates, tax treatment, water use, or how utilities and regulators will allocate costs. Later project designs, agreements, regulatory decisions, and construction developments are not reflected. See Methodology & Data Sources.
Project Blue is a large-scale data center campus under development in unincorporated Pima County near Tucson. This dashboard models the version presented publicly as of July 2025, which contemplated billions of dollars in construction and equipment investment, temporary and permanent employment, and an extension of Tucson's reclaimed water system. The project subsequently proceeded outside the city with different water and energy arrangements that are not reflected in this model.
This dashboard creates interactive projections of the resource utilization and financial impact of Project Blue on Tucson taxpayers and ratepayers using public industry data and economic modeling techniques.
Share of Local Resources & Economy
Adjust sliders below to update
% of Water
💧 0.00%
% of Electricity
⚡️ 0.00%
% of Economy
💰 0.00%
In August 2025, the City of Tucson declined to annex the site or enter the proposed development agreement. Project Blue subsequently proceeded outside city limits. Drag the sliders below to see how different possibilities could change the ultimate impact on Tucson's resources and economy. Click on the labeled reference points to explore the possibilities based on the developer's claims as of July 2025 and other industry data.
💧
WATER USE
0% of Tucson Water Delivery
The proposal presented to Tucson as of July 2025 contemplated using potable Tucson Water for the first two years before transitioning primarily to reclaimed water. That arrangement did not proceed. The dashboard below preserves the original assumptions and industry comparisons for historical scenario analysis.
⚡️
ELECTRIC USE
0% of TEP's Total Retail Delivery
0% of TEP's Residential Delivery
🏗️
PROJECT SCALE
Construction Investment
Equipment Investment
💰
LOCAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Annual Local Spending
Electric Rate ($/MWh)
$100
Marginal Cost of Power ($/MWh)
$180
NET LOCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
Electric Impact (Annual)
Total Tax Revenue from Electric+$0
Modeled Potential Ratepayer Cost-$0
Net Electric Impact$0
Water Impact (Annual)
Taxes on Water Bill+$0
Modeled Water Resource Cost-$0
Net Water Impact$0
Fiscal Impact
Modeled Equipment Tax Reduction-$0M/yr
Other Tax Revenue+$0M/yr
SHARE OF LOCAL RESOURCES & ECONOMY
Scale: Bars extend to 125% of resource; vertical line marks 100%
% of Water Delivery0.00%
100%
% of Retail Electricity Delivery0.00%
100%
Annual Ongoing Economic Activity0.000%
100%
For every $1,000 of Tucson's economy, Project Blue represents $0.00
NET LOCAL IMPACT
$0
per year (ongoing)
Construction Period Local Benefit
$0M
0.00% of economy
Methodology & Key Sources
Core Formula
This dashboard calculates the Net Local Impact (NLI) of Project Blue on the Tucson community using the formula:
NLI = Net Fiscal Impact + Net Utility Impact (Electric + Water)
Electric Impact Model
The electric impact compares what the facility pays for power with the model's assumed marginal cost of providing that power:
Net Electric = Total Tax Revenue - Modeled Potential Ratepayer Cost
Where Total Tax Revenue includes both the tax on what the data center pays plus the tax on any modeled costs assigned to ratepayers.
Price Paid: $80-140/MWh based on TEP Large General Service rates
Optimistic: 70% solar @ $40/MWh + 20% battery @ $200/MWh + 10% gas @ $150/MWh = $143/MWh
Realistic: 50% solar @ $40/MWh + 30% battery @ $220/MWh + 20% gas @ $180/MWh = $182/MWh
Conservative: 30% solar @ $40/MWh + 40% battery @ $240/MWh + 30% gas @ $200/MWh = $228/MWh
Important Note: These marginal cost estimates exclude network upgrades, transmission costs, permitting costs, and environmental compliance costs
Tax Rate: 8.7% combined TPT (5.6% state + 2.6% city + 0.5% county)
Water Impact Model
The water impact uses an "economic value" methodology to model the economic value of water, measured in Million Gallons per Day (MGD):
Net Water = (Water Bill × 2.6% Tax Rate) - ((Economic Value - Market Price) × Annual Usage)
Potable Water Price: $1,594.30/AF (Tucson Water base industrial rate - excludes summer surcharges)
Potable Economic Value: $4,500/AF (economic modeling assumption based on: $800/AF new supply cost + $700/AF opportunity cost + $3,000/AF drought resilience value)
Tax Rate: 2.6% (City of Tucson TPT only)
Water Delivery Baseline: Tucson Water delivered 78.6 MGD of potable water in 2024 (91.6 MGD total including reclaimed)
Note: The proposal as of July 2025 contemplated two years of potable Tucson Water use followed by a transition primarily to reclaimed water through a proposed 18-mile pipeline. Those plans are historical and do not describe the project's current water sources.
Construction vs. Equipment
Construction: Building the facility creates local jobs and procurement. ~48.9% stays in the local economy as wages and materials
Equipment: Servers and cooling systems purchased from outside Tucson. The model assumes ~5% stays local during construction (installation labor) and applies an 8.7% tax exemption under Arizona's Certified Data Center program for 20 years if the project qualifies as a "sustainable redevelopment project" through LEED or a similar green building certification
LEED assumption: The model assumes qualification for the 20-year exemption period based on industry examples of data center campuses built to LEED Gold standards or higher